Hannover at Bayern Munich on Sun 2-8

soccerbob · Feb 7, 2004

I was leaning to Bayern Munich and over a bit here until Werder Bremen pulled off a last minute win today. Now I really like both plays a lot. That win put Werder Bremen nine points up on Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. With Bayern drawing last week at Frankfurt, they have now put themselves in a must win position in home matches like this. Not only do they have to catch Werder Bremen at the top but Stuttgart occupy second place.

Bayern Munich lost midweek in the German Cup and I feel that was the best thing that could have happened to them. Now they can concentrate on the league and their much anticipated Champion's League cracker of a match at home in two weeks against Real Madrid. Hannover have the second worst defense in the Bundesliga and these two clubs have played some high scoring matches and I see the same type of match with Bayern Munich doing most of the scoring.

Bayern Munich -1 1/2 -105
Over 3 -110

acw · Feb 8, 2004

This is one of those matches I really love betting wise!

soccerbob,
Here in Asia (and especially in Indonesia) they think you are crazy! Betting on favourites that give 1.5 goal is something only squares do in their point of view and this is a perfect example of a fighting for the favourite. The Asian books all want to lay (in British terms) the favourite here. Indosoccer has the best price now at +102.5 giving 1.5 goal. I am not going to give my opinion on this match, however I will confirm that the best gamblers in the world will still bet on these type of favourites too, but they will not let you know, if they have 0% advantage or a healthy 20% on it. In case they have the 0% advantage on it, in which case they are purely gambling/messing around, then you betting on it at -105 is simply in an unhealthy position. The secret I will give away is that you will lose in the long run, if you give in more than 5 cents on Indosoccer’s prices continuously.

Same thing on the Over. Indosoccer has it too at 3 goals, but -102.5. I just cannot see any value at -110.

Good Luck!

chriscol · Feb 8, 2004

ACW you might be right on value in the long term, but we are not talking about playing every game laying 1.5 goals.

In this game i like both selections of soccerbob very much. write up is right on the money...nothing to add on this game.

JackDee · Feb 8, 2004

nice write up bob.

i am on the over 3 too.

Duckstabber · Feb 8, 2004

Either I'll take Hannover +1 1/2 or I'll stay away from this game. It sounds to me like your picks are based too much on motivation, Bob. Whether Werder won yesterday or not doesn't affect Bayern's chances of beating Hannover today imo...

I kind of like the over though.

Good luck

matahari · Feb 8, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> The secret I will give away is that you will lose in the long run, if you give in more than 5 cents on Indosoccer’s prices continuously. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This is called vig, or am I missing something ?
Would you win in the long run if you bet above evens or above + 5 cents with Indosoccer ? I'd be amazed if you would.

fredd · Feb 8, 2004

Bob,

CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!

You put us in the WINNERS circle again.

Excellent call of the game -

Thanks very much

best of fortune

fredd

JackDee · Feb 8, 2004

nice call(s) there bob.

motivation, or the infuence of motivation on the outcome of the game, is a big issue, sometimes it doesn't come into play it all, sometimes it works in favour and some times against a team.

soccerbob · Feb 8, 2004

It's nice to get all this input. As A2345 said in his EPL post, this forum has been a bit on the slow side the last couple months. I enjoyed the posts this weekend as it seemed to bring out some people that haven't been heard from in a while. That's good to see. I would like to see this forum a lot more active in the coming weeks and months. Not only with game analysis but with betting theories and angles as well as opinions on good soccer books to bet at and listings of good soccer sites that you guys find informative.

Winter breaks are over and the leagues are rolling again. The Champion''s League and UEFA Cup resume Feb 24-Feb 26 so there's a lot of things going on. I will posting a lot more and I hope others will as well. There are some sharp guys that have contributed here and I would like to see them be a more active part of this soccer forum as well as some new people that may be just looking in and aren't sure whether to post. Jump in and give your opinions.